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August 04, 2005



China can, and eventually will, take Taiwan back. They will invade and occupy the island much more quickly than we can send reinforcements. After they have done that, I believe the Taiwanese government will capitulate rather than have hundreds of thousands of the population die in a bloody war.

What could we do if the Taiwanese government surrenders and asks us not to interfere? Nothing.

Is the American public willing to go to war over an island that most people can't even find on a map? No.

China will have to tough out the world outrage for a while, but at the same time will gain huge influence in the East for standing up to America and getting away with it.

Not a pleasant picture... It would also fire up a huge arms race in the East as Japan and South Korea get more than a little freaked out.

Oh, good times ahead.


Eric, my thoughts exactly.


I think you're right. Sucks. It may be that the idea of an arms race with Japan might help deter the Red Chinese from trying to grab Taiwan; I think that's about the only hope we've got.

The really sad thing is that the world hasn't really learned anything from World War II, and will tamely submit to naked acts of aggression.

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