The left is having a ball blaming Bush for 'cutting' funding for the levies, sending the National Guard out of the country to fight in Iraq, failing to respond fast enough to the crisis, hating black people, blah-blah-blah. Let's look at the what is known about the situation in New Orleans. First, the levees:
1. The levees that failed were new ones, recently completed. According to the commander of the US Army Corps of Engineers, Lt. General Carl Strock:
"In fact, the levee failures we saw were in areas of the projects that were at their full project design... So that part of the project was in place, and had this project been fully complete ... [West Bank, Southeast Louisiana, and Lake Ponchartrain] it's my opinion, based on the intensity of this storm, that the flooding of the Central Business District and the French Quarter would still have occurred. So I do not see that the level of funding is really a contributing factor in this case."
When hurricanes are part of the design criteria, the Corps designs against the Standard Project Hurricane (SPH) model, which has a frequency of occurence of once every 500 years. The SPH is equivalent to a category 3 hurricane. There is and will continue to be a great deal of criticism about this. People will ask - with some justice - why the levees were not designed against the worst-case scenario, a direct hit by a category 5 storm. The answer, obviously, is money: why spend billions to defend against an event that has a miniscule chance of happening?
We might also ask - with justice - why people chose to live and have businesses in an area that might get hit by a category 5 hurricane, just as we might ask why people live in the fire- and earthquake prone coast of southern California or the tornado prone mid-west. In essence, everybody plays the odds in the hope that something bad won't happen, or at least won't happen on their watch. What's kind of depressing is that the populations of these regions are INCREASING. Yep: people are deliberately choosing to move to areas that are liable to be swept away by hurricanes or fall into the Pacific Ocean as the result of a really big earthquake. Smart. Very smart.
2. The Corps of Engineer funding for the New Orleans area has been stable over nearly the past two decades. Again, General Strock:
"Let me also address the issue of the general impact of the war in Iraq on civil works funding. We've seen some suggestions that our budget has been affected by the war. I can also say that I do not see that to be the case. If you look at the historical levels of funding for the Corps of Engineers from the pre-war levels back to 1992, '91, before we actually got into this, you'll see that the level of funding has been fairly stable throughout that period. So I think we would see that our funding levels would have dropped off if that were the case; so I do not see that as an issue that is relevant to the discussion of the flood protection of the City of New Orleans."
The Corps recognized that the levee / flood control system for Lousiana needed to be upgraded... in 2002:
The study encompasses a multi-parish area in southeastern Louisiana. Funds available in Fiscal Year 2002 are being used to continue a reconnaissance study to evaluate the existing hurricane protection systems in southeast Louisiana and recommend improvements and modifications to the existing level of protection. Hurricane protection for category 4 and 5 storms will be analyzed. The reconnaissance report, submitted for certification on 1 July 2002, determined that there was a Federal interest in proceeding to the feasibility phase. Funds requested for Fiscal Year 2003 will be used to complete the Project Management Plan and negotiate the FCSA.
Incidentally, the existing levee system was started in 1967 and as of September 2003 was 90% complete (see page 11-5 of this report). I'm not saying that a crash program started in 2001 might not have been able to provide the New Orleans area with category 5 hurricane protection, but given how slowly the government usually works, I wouldn't bet on it.
Now, what about Governor Blanco and Mayor Nagin? The always excellent Captain's Quarters has some good comments about Nagin and the fact that last year's Hurricane Ivan provided a dress rehearsal for Katrina, exposing many flaws with the city's emergency plans... And Nagin did nothing. Perhaps this news article from September, 2004 will sound eerily prescient:
In this case, city officials first said they would provide no shelter, then agreed that the state-owned Louisiana Superdome would open to those with special medical needs. Only Wednesday afternoon, with Ivan just hours away, did the city open the 20-story-high domed stadium to the public.
Mayor Ray Nagin's spokeswoman, Tanzie Jones, insisted that there was no reluctance at City Hall to open the Superdome, but said the evacuation was the top priority.
"Our main focus is to get the people out of the city," she said.
Callers to talk radio complained about the late decision to open up the dome, but the mayor said he would do nothing different.
"We did the compassionate thing by opening the shelter," Nagin said. "We wanted to make sure we didn't have a repeat performance of what happened before. We didn't want to see people cooped up in the Superdome for days."
When another dangerous hurricane, Georges, appeared headed for the city in 1998, the Superdome was opened as a shelter and an estimated 14,000 people poured in. But there were problems, including theft and vandalism.
...
The main safety measure - getting people out of town - raised its own problems.
More than 1 million people tried to leave the city and surrounding suburbs on Tuesday, creating a traffic jam as bad as or worse than the evacuation that followed Georges. In the afternoon, state police took action, reversing inbound lanes on southeastern Louisiana interstates to provide more escape routes. Bottlenecks persisted, however.
Col. Henry Whitehorn, head of state police, said he believes his agency acted appropriately, but also acknowledged he never expected a seven-hour-long crawl for the 60 miles between New Orleans and Baton Rouge.
It was so bad that some broadcasters were telling people to stay home, that they had missed their window of opportunity to leave. They claimed the interstates had turned into parking lots where trapped people could die in a storm surge.
Gov. Kathleen Blanco and Nagin both acknowledged the need to improve traffic flow and said state police should consider reversing highway lanes earlier. They also promised meetings with governments in neighboring localities and state transportation officials to improve evacuation plans.
By the way, it appears that Nagin spent the hurricane in BATON ROUGE. Thousands couldn't get out of the city, but apparently he made damned sure that HE wasn't one of them.
CQ reader Lucky Bogey found this article from 2003:
[Hurricane] Isidore also provided Mayor Ray Nagin his first experience with the city's Office of Emergency Preparedness atop City Hall. Nagin noted that an estimated 100,000 residents of the city rely on public transportation, and he said he hopes federal support for a future light rail system will enable the city to evacuate these residents to Louis Armstrong International Airport and points beyond. [emphasis mine - dj505]
In addition, Nagin deplored the "patchwork of networks among the parishes in terms of [emergency] communications and technology." We expect police and emergency agencies to be talking to each other on the same radio channel during an emergency. Apparently, they were not, at least not during Isidore. Nagin is correct to worry publicly about such a lack of coordination, and we share his concern.
He HOPES that the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT will build a light rail system? Mayor Nagin, it may have escaped your notice, but the people of the City of New Orleans elected YOU to take care of things like this. And let's assume that the good people of Alaska and West Virginia DID pony up their tax dollars so you can have a light rail system to the airport. What then? Is the airport on high ground? Has it got adequate facilities to shelter as many as 100,000 people? Or were you simply sort of hoping that the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT would also magically provide hundreds of transport planes to get your people out while you went to Baton Rouge?
PHAGH!
The mayor DID have some assets of his own to get people out. See how well he used them (hat tip: Jo's Cafe)?
Let's have a look at a couple of key paragraphs from the City of New Orleans Comprehensive EmergenyManagement Plan, Annex 1: Hurricanes.
Part 2, section II: Concept of Operations
Slow developing weather conditions (primarily hurricane) will create increased readiness culminating in an evacuation order 24 hours (12 daylight hours) prior to predicted landfall.
Part 3, paragraph A: Evacuation Order
The authority to order the evacuation of residents threatened by an approaching hurricane is conferred to the Governor by Louisiana Statute. The Governor is granted the power to direct and compel the evacuation of all or part of the population from a stricken or threatened area within the State, if he deems this action necessary for the preservation of life or other disaster mitigation, response or recovery. The same power to order an evacuation conferred upon the Governor is also delegated to each political subdivision of the State by Executive Order. This authority empowers the chief elected official of New Orleans, the Mayor of New Orleans, to order the evacuation of the parish residents threatened by an approaching hurricane.
Part 4, paragraph A: Evacuation time requirements
Using information developed as part of the Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Task Force and other research, the City of New Orleans has established a maximum acceptable hurricane evacuation time standard for a Category 3 storm event of 72 hours. This is based on clearance time or is the time required to clear all vehicles evacuating in response to a hurricane situation from area roadways. Clearance time begins when the first evacuating vehicle enters the road network and ends when the last evacuating vehicle reaches its destination.
Am I misinterpretting this, or does the plan require the governor to issue an evacuation warning twenty-four hours prior to landfall though the city requires 72 hours to evacuate?
Here's a timeline from Fox News:
Wednesday, Aug 24: Tropical depression #12 strengthens to hurricane force. Hurricane is designated "Katrina".
Thursday, Aug 25: Hurricane Katrina, a category 1 storm, strikes the southern tip of the Florida peninsula.
Friday, Aug 26: 10,000 National Guard troops sent to the Gulf Coast region.
Governor Blanco declares a state of emergency.
Saturday, Aug 27: New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin declares a state of emergency and urges residents in low-lying areas to evacuate.
Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour declares a state of emergency. A mandatory evacuation is ordered for Hancock County.
Sunday, Aug 28: Katrina grows to a category 5 hurricane.
Mandatory evacuation for New Orleans ordered. Ten emergency shelters are established in the city for those unable to evacuate.
Alabama Governor Bob Riley declares a state of emergency.
Monday, Aug 29: Katrina makes landfall at 06:10 CDT near Buras, LA with wind speeds of 145mph.
Tuesday, Aug 30: Governor Kathleen Blanco orders manadatory evacuation for all remaining residents of New Orleans.
Governor Blanco and Mayor Nagin issued there evacuation warnings (at the request of the president) on Sunday, August 28 less than 24 hours before Katrina was expected to hit the coast.
But Blanco's on the ball. Yessir... She issued the following executive order:
Wedensday, Aug 31: KBB 2005-31 directs that schools around the state inventory their buses to be used to evacuate civilians from New Orleans.
Hmmm... A little late, don't you think?
I can't imagine what Blanco and Nagin were playing at. They KNEW from recent experience that evacuating New Orleans would take days. They KNEW that the 'last resort' shelters such as the Superdome were fit only for a few hours occupation. They KNEW that there were thousands of people in New Orleans who lacked the personal means to evacuate. They KNEW that the levees were probably going to be swamped by the storm.
They knew all these things... and did virtually nothing.
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